My predictions for the Auckland Super City council election tomorrow
08/10/2010
It will be interesting to see how accurate these predictions are!
Len Brown will I think win the mayoralty, but by a slim margin.
Albany: Julia PARFITT and Andrew WILLIAMS. Parfitt has strong credentials andin such a large field of candidates should make it. Williams’s mayoral bid has fared disastrously, but his profile should see him win given the wide dispersal of votes. Former MP Brian NEESON is unlikely to beat either. Although this are has had significant new development and is generally affluent, noneof the other right-leaning candidates seems likely to get there.
Albert-Eden-Roskill: Cathy CASEY and Christine FLETCHER. Casey has performed well as a City Vision councillor,and should attract support from this area’s strong educated left-leaning population. Fletcher is a former Mayor and National Party Cabinet Minister, and is bound to romp in. None of the other candidates seem likely to succeed, although Incumbent councillor, Don Brash hagiographer and unsuccessful National party candidate Paul GOLDSMITH might have a show, but Casey should beat him.
Franklin: a close call between left-leaning Dianne GLENN and C&R candidate Des MORRISON. Common sense would suggest that C&R would win in this very “blue” area. But Glenn has a high profile as the area’s rep on the ARC, and has backing from the outgoing Mayor. Also, the Super City structure is very unpopular in this independent rural district. Pick GLENN by a nostril.
Howick: This is a very right-wing constituency, with a large Asian population, and to date high voter turnout. Act Party stalwart and some-time athlete Dick QUAX is a shoe-in. Another leading candidate is councillor Sharon STEWART, who is identified with a successful racist campaigbn to stop the ward being named Te Irirangi, as well as a rather popular and high-profile campaign gainst the erection of cellphone towers in the area. Also, youthful Quax C&R running mate Jami-Lee ROSS may well reach the finish line second after Quax.
Manukau: A very large and divers ward, spanning from Mangere Bridge through Otahuhu, Otara, Papatoetoe to Manukau City itself. Expect high-profile Otara coumncillor and former National MP Arthur ANAE to win. Gary TROUP has a good show and has been very active in Manukau after succeeding Su’a William Sio as Deputy Mayor of Manukau. His deputising for Len Brown should help him. Labour Party candidates Alf FILIPAINA and Efu KOKA may attract significant support from Pacific Islanders given their ethnicity and party affiliation. Filipaina is an incumbent councillor for Mangere and Koka for Otara. Filipaina has attracted more publicity than his Labour Party ticket-mate, and Mangere is more populous than Otara. Of the two he is the more likely to win. Brent MORRISSEY has ARC experience and wide knowledge of infrastructure issues, but after losing oout on the Labour nomination is unlikely to make it. Expect ANAE and either FILIPAINA or TROUP. Troup’s chances probably depend on whether he can mop up support from outside his local Papatoetoe and middle-class Pakeha. On balance, sheer numbers maight favour FILIPAINA.
Manurewa-Papakura. One to watch. Sir John WALKER is a local Manurewa boy and national sporting identity with extensive community and council experience. He should win. Geriatric long serving former Manukau Mayor Sir Barry CURTIS is long past his expiry date, and voters should remember his lacklustre record and conceited attitude in the later years of his mayoralty. He is from Bucklands Beach, and appears to be simply using Manurewa as a constituency to enable him to re-enter municipal politics. Obviously he thinks that he fares better here than in his own Howick ward! But in local elections name recognition is key, and after so many years as Mayor many voters are likely to tick his box through mere identification. Papakura Mayor Calum PENROSE fough the Super city proposal tooth-and-nail, and made heroic but unsuccessful efforts to keep Papakura as its own independent fiefdom. He is likely to receive signifiacnt support in the Ppakura half of the ward, and also has backing from important figures in Manurewa. Outside these three candidates no-one has a chance. WALKER should win, and I would say that Curtis’s opportunistic proclivities make it more likely than not that PENROSE should beat him to second place.
Maungakiekie-Tamaki. The Labour party is fielding councillor and former Onehunga MP Richard NORTHEY as a candiadte for this ward’s sole council seat. He should win. C&R are standing an energetic and articulate Maori, Alfred NGARO, but he won’t have the numbers in this generally working-class area. Mayoral contender and theatre director Simon PRAST has no show.
North Shore: An open rase. former Northcote and North Shore Deputy Mayor Ann HARTLEY will have solid support, but there are many candidates and only two seats. Evil right-wing moron, former WINZ chief, TV show panellist and ARC councillor Christine RANKIN, unfortunately, may pick up a lot of support from the large cluster of wealthy white voters in parts of this area. On the other hand, former MP and current councillor Grant GILLON is well-known and active in the area as a left-leaning candidate, and although former North Shore Mayor George WOOD was ousted last time, he should retain strong local support after his time at the Shore’s helm. He is also the only candidate standing on the right-wing but well-recognised C&R ticket. From the left comes ARC transport committee chair, tireless envoronmental gladiator and public transport activist Joel CAYFORD. Most likely RANKIN and WOOD will make it, although one of these could lose out in favour of CAYFORD, GILLON, or HARTLEY.
Orakei. Grey and boring C&R council veteran should be ousted by lively Newmarket Business association chair and National Party activist Cameron BREWER in this wealthy blue-ribbon area. the third candidate, architect and monorail advocate Hugh CHAPMAN has not a chance.
Rodney. Like Franklin residents, the people of Rodney have militated strongly against having their unique rural district swallowed up by the single council. Rodney Mayor and former Act MP Penny WEBSTER has led the charge vocally, and should win in this well-heeled area. But the district ARC rep, environmentalist Christine ROSE, poses a credible challenge to Webster from the left. Either could win, but I’m picking WEBSTER.
Waitakere. The West should elect well-known ARC councillor and journalist Sandra CONEY. Will her running mate and long-serving ARC colleague Paul WALBRAN likewise make it? Probably, given that C&R candidates, former National Cabinet minister and Waitakere councillor Marie HASLER and local National Party campaign manager Mark BRICKELL face competition from businesswoman Vanessa NEESON and a host of others. Hasler could make it, but I’m picking CONEY and WALBRAN.
Waitemata. The core of the city. After C&R candidate and Chamber of Commerce head Michael barnett dipped ourt after being diagnosed with cancer, the right is divided between C&R-endorsed Heart of the City chief Alex SWNEY and businessman Tenby POWELL. There has been dissent within C&R over the ticket’s choice to endorse Swney over Powell. But ARC chief and long-time transport campaigner and all-round centre-left icon Mike LEE would have a good show even without the split on the right, and now is assured of victory. Rob THOMAS is a young greeniw who has fronted a vigorous campaign, but he will have to settle for a seat on the local board.
Whau. An economically, culturally and geographically diverse community with no real common “hub”. C&R Councillor Noelene RAFFILLS, widow of the late hard-right but oddly respected Avondale College principal Phil, faces no serious competition. Ross CLOW should come a distant second.
Len Brown will I think win the mayoralty, but by a slim margin.
Albany: Julia PARFITT and Andrew WILLIAMS. Parfitt has strong credentials andin such a large field of candidates should make it. Williams’s mayoral bid has fared disastrously, but his profile should see him win given the wide dispersal of votes. Former MP Brian NEESON is unlikely to beat either. Although this are has had significant new development and is generally affluent, noneof the other right-leaning candidates seems likely to get there.
Albert-Eden-Roskill: Cathy CASEY and Christine FLETCHER. Casey has performed well as a City Vision councillor,and should attract support from this area’s strong educated left-leaning population. Fletcher is a former Mayor and National Party Cabinet Minister, and is bound to romp in. None of the other candidates seem likely to succeed, although Incumbent councillor, Don Brash hagiographer and unsuccessful National party candidate Paul GOLDSMITH might have a show, but Casey should beat him.
Franklin: a close call between left-leaning Dianne GLENN and C&R candidate Des MORRISON. Common sense would suggest that C&R would win in this very “blue” area. But Glenn has a high profile as the area’s rep on the ARC, and has backing from the outgoing Mayor. Also, the Super City structure is very unpopular in this independent rural district. Pick GLENN by a nostril.
Howick: This is a very right-wing constituency, with a large Asian population, and to date high voter turnout. Act Party stalwart and some-time athlete Dick QUAX is a shoe-in. Another leading candidate is councillor Sharon STEWART, who is identified with a successful racist campaigbn to stop the ward being named Te Irirangi, as well as a rather popular and high-profile campaign gainst the erection of cellphone towers in the area. Also, youthful Quax C&R running mate Jami-Lee ROSS may well reach the finish line second after Quax.
Manukau: A very large and divers ward, spanning from Mangere Bridge through Otahuhu, Otara, Papatoetoe to Manukau City itself. Expect high-profile Otara coumncillor and former National MP Arthur ANAE to win. Gary TROUP has a good show and has been very active in Manukau after succeeding Su’a William Sio as Deputy Mayor of Manukau. His deputising for Len Brown should help him. Labour Party candidates Alf FILIPAINA and Efu KOKA may attract significant support from Pacific Islanders given their ethnicity and party affiliation. Filipaina is an incumbent councillor for Mangere and Koka for Otara. Filipaina has attracted more publicity than his Labour Party ticket-mate, and Mangere is more populous than Otara. Of the two he is the more likely to win. Brent MORRISSEY has ARC experience and wide knowledge of infrastructure issues, but after losing oout on the Labour nomination is unlikely to make it. Expect ANAE and either FILIPAINA or TROUP. Troup’s chances probably depend on whether he can mop up support from outside his local Papatoetoe and middle-class Pakeha. On balance, sheer numbers maight favour FILIPAINA.
Manurewa-Papakura. One to watch. Sir John WALKER is a local Manurewa boy and national sporting identity with extensive community and council experience. He should win. Geriatric long serving former Manukau Mayor Sir Barry CURTIS is long past his expiry date, and voters should remember his lacklustre record and conceited attitude in the later years of his mayoralty. He is from Bucklands Beach, and appears to be simply using Manurewa as a constituency to enable him to re-enter municipal politics. Obviously he thinks that he fares better here than in his own Howick ward! But in local elections name recognition is key, and after so many years as Mayor many voters are likely to tick his box through mere identification. Papakura Mayor Calum PENROSE fough the Super city proposal tooth-and-nail, and made heroic but unsuccessful efforts to keep Papakura as its own independent fiefdom. He is likely to receive signifiacnt support in the Ppakura half of the ward, and also has backing from important figures in Manurewa. Outside these three candidates no-one has a chance. WALKER should win, and I would say that Curtis’s opportunistic proclivities make it more likely than not that PENROSE should beat him to second place.
Maungakiekie-Tamaki. The Labour party is fielding councillor and former Onehunga MP Richard NORTHEY as a candiadte for this ward’s sole council seat. He should win. C&R are standing an energetic and articulate Maori, Alfred NGARO, but he won’t have the numbers in this generally working-class area. Mayoral contender and theatre director Simon PRAST has no show.
North Shore: An open rase. former Northcote and North Shore Deputy Mayor Ann HARTLEY will have solid support, but there are many candidates and only two seats. Evil right-wing moron, former WINZ chief, TV show panellist and ARC councillor Christine RANKIN, unfortunately, may pick up a lot of support from the large cluster of wealthy white voters in parts of this area. On the other hand, former MP and current councillor Grant GILLON is well-known and active in the area as a left-leaning candidate, and although former North Shore Mayor George WOOD was ousted last time, he should retain strong local support after his time at the Shore’s helm. He is also the only candidate standing on the right-wing but well-recognised C&R ticket. From the left comes ARC transport committee chair, tireless envoronmental gladiator and public transport activist Joel CAYFORD. Most likely RANKIN and WOOD will make it, although one of these could lose out in favour of CAYFORD, GILLON, or HARTLEY.
Orakei. Grey and boring C&R council veteran should be ousted by lively Newmarket Business association chair and National Party activist Cameron BREWER in this wealthy blue-ribbon area. the third candidate, architect and monorail advocate Hugh CHAPMAN has not a chance.
Rodney. Like Franklin residents, the people of Rodney have militated strongly against having their unique rural district swallowed up by the single council. Rodney Mayor and former Act MP Penny WEBSTER has led the charge vocally, and should win in this well-heeled area. But the district ARC rep, environmentalist Christine ROSE, poses a credible challenge to Webster from the left. Either could win, but I’m picking WEBSTER.
Waitakere. The West should elect well-known ARC councillor and journalist Sandra CONEY. Will her running mate and long-serving ARC colleague Paul WALBRAN likewise make it? Probably, given that C&R candidates, former National Cabinet minister and Waitakere councillor Marie HASLER and local National Party campaign manager Mark BRICKELL face competition from businesswoman Vanessa NEESON and a host of others. Hasler could make it, but I’m picking CONEY and WALBRAN.
Waitemata. The core of the city. After C&R candidate and Chamber of Commerce head Michael barnett dipped ourt after being diagnosed with cancer, the right is divided between C&R-endorsed Heart of the City chief Alex SWNEY and businessman Tenby POWELL. There has been dissent within C&R over the ticket’s choice to endorse Swney over Powell. But ARC chief and long-time transport campaigner and all-round centre-left icon Mike LEE would have a good show even without the split on the right, and now is assured of victory. Rob THOMAS is a young greeniw who has fronted a vigorous campaign, but he will have to settle for a seat on the local board.
Whau. An economically, culturally and geographically diverse community with no real common “hub”. C&R Councillor Noelene RAFFILLS, widow of the late hard-right but oddly respected Avondale College principal Phil, faces no serious competition. Ross CLOW should come a distant second.
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